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How the Coffee Industry Will Be Roasted by Climate Change

受氣候變遷影響 未來咖啡恐成奢侈品

Coffee, like all agricultural products, could be thrown into upheaval by climate change, turning a cup of coffee into a luxury in the years to come.
像是所有其它農產品一樣,咖啡的生產可能會被氣候變遷打亂,在未來幾年一杯咖啡可能將變成奢侈品。

As the most traded commodity in the world after oil, coffee beans are grown in more than 60 countries. Brazil is by far the biggest producer, followed by Vietnam and Colombia. The coffee growing business is worth US$100 billion, with 25 million families’ livelihoods depending on the crop. But there is a growing consensus among experts that climate change will severely impact the world’s coffee-producing nations over the next 80 years.
咖啡豆是全世界僅次於石油的第二大貿易商品,栽種咖啡的國家總共超過60個 。巴西是目前最大的生產者,接著是越南和哥倫比亞。咖啡栽種市場的價值達1千億美金,有2500萬家庭以種植咖啡維生。但越來越多專家一致認為, 在未來80年,氣候變遷將嚴重衝擊全世界的咖啡生產國。

A combination of effects, resulting from rising temperature and precipitation changes, will make the land where coffee is currently grown unsuitable for its production. According to the National Academy of Science, in Latin America alone, more than 90 percent of the land used for coffee production could suffer this fate. It is estimated that Ethiopia, the sixth largest producer in the world, could lose over 60 percent of its production by 2050.
由氣溫升高和降雨改變所造成的一連串效應,將使得目前栽種咖啡的地方不再適合種植咖啡。根據美國國家科學院,光是在拉丁美洲,有超過90%現在被用來種植咖啡的土地可能遭受此命運。據估計,世界第六大咖啡生產國衣索比亞的咖啡生產量可能在2050年前減少超過60%。

With climate change, pest management and disease control are serious issues for farmers who cannot afford to protect their crops. Many will simply choose to grow other crops less vulnerable to climate change. Others may try to increase their coffee production, but the quality will certainly be compromised.
隨著氣候變遷加劇,病蟲害防治對負擔不起預防措施的農夫來說是個嚴重的問題。許多農夫會乾脆選擇栽種其他較不受氣候變遷影響的作物。其他農夫可能會增加咖啡產量,但品質一定會下降。

Experts predict in the coming years, higher temperatures will drive up coffee prices and that good beans will become more difficult to procure in the future. Right now, coffee futures are valued at US$1.27 per pound and are being exposed to downward pressures. At this rate, the record price of US$ 3.39 per pound, set in 1977, could return in only a few years.
專家們預測在未來幾年內,氣溫升高將使得咖啡的價格提高,且要取得好的咖啡豆將會變得更加困難。目前咖啡期貨報價是每磅1.27美元,且正面臨價格下滑的壓力。照這樣下去,只要再幾年就可能回到1977年創下的每磅3.39美元的歷史高價。

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